Mumbai Indians must win both remaining matches and rely on at least two teams from the current Top 3 to drop points.
The Mumbai Indians‘ (MI) narrow loss to Gujarat Titans (GT) in Match 56 of IPL 2025 has thrown a spanner in their hopes of sealing a Top 2 finish. The seven-wicket defeat via DLS has left MI with 14 points from 12 games, placing them fourth in the standings. With only two matches left for them in the league stage, the big question remains — Can Mumbai Indians still qualify for the playoffs as a Top 2 team?
Let’s break it down with permutations, combinations, and possible scenarios from the remaining IPL 2025 fixtures.
After 12 matches, Mumbai Indians have:
Despite their loss to Gujarat Titans, MI’s superior Net Run Rate keeps them in the hunt. A Top 2 finish requires a team to ideally finish with at least 18 points, or 16 with a very strong NRR if other results go in their favour.
If Mumbai Indians beat Punjab Kings and Delhi Capitals, they move to 18 points. That would make them automatic contenders for a Top 2 finish, especially given their excellent NRR.
In this case, here’s what MI would want from other matches:
This gets trickier. At 16 points, MI will have to depend on other teams losing games.
In this case:
If there’s a multi-team tie at 16, MI’s superior Net Run Rate could still push them into the Top 2. But this scenario relies heavily on other results.
They stay at 14. In this case, not only do they miss out on the Top 2, but they could even slip out of the Top 4, depending on how KKR, LSG, and DC perform against the other teams.
To track MI’s chances, these matches become extremely important other than their own matches:
Mumbai will hope for Gujarat and RCB to drop points, and Punjab and Delhi to not win all of their remaining three games. Every loss to these teams pushes MI closer to the Top 2.
Even with the pressure mounting, MI possess two key advantages:
Yes, Mumbai Indians can still make it to the Top 2 of IPL 2025. But they no longer control their fate entirely. They must:
The road is narrow, but the path exists — and with MI’s experience and firepower, don’t count them out just yet.
A: Two — against Punjab Kings on May 11 and Delhi Capitals on May 15.
A: Yes, but only likely in the Top 4, not Top 2. They’ll need help from other results.
A: Their superior Net Run Rate (+1.156), which can act as a tie-breaker in case of a points logjam.
A: RCB and GT to lose at least one match each; PBKS, KKR, DC to lose enough games to stay below or at 16 points.
A: Not entirely. They must win both remaining matches and rely on at least two teams from the current Top 3 to drop points.
