The ICC Champions Trophy 2025 kicks off on February 19, in Pakistan, marking the tournament’s return after an eight-year break and prediction for the multi-nation event will be quite a task with several depleted squads. The event features the top eight ODI teams, divided into two groups.
Each team will play three group-stage matches, with the top two from each group advancing to the semi-finals. The final is scheduled for March 9.
This edition is significant as it brings international tournament cricket back to Pakistan after nearly three decades. Defending champions Pakistan aim to capitalize on home advantage, while India enters as a strong contender, despite missing key pacer Jasprit Bumrah due to injury. Australia faces challenges with injuries to prominent bowlers, and England seeks to improve after recent inconsistent performances. Afghanistan makes its tournament debut, showcasing impressive ODI form over the past two years.
With several teams depleted due to injuries, there are no clear favourites heading into the tournament. Our writers put down their predictions for the four semi-finalists for the tournament ahead of the start on February 19.
South Africa, Australia, India, New Zealand
It’s a no-brainer that Rohit Sharma-led Team India will qualify for the semi-finals of the 2025 ICC Champions Trophy, despite suffering a major injury setback in pacer Jasprit Bumrah. Hosts Pakistan will also be expected to make the last-four but given their unpredictability, it can be touch-and-go. New Zealand, too, have injury concerns of their own with Lockie Ferguson ruled out and Rachin Ravindra doubtful for the opener against Pakistan on Wednesday.
But still, New Zealand seem a better team on paper to qualify for the semi-finals over unpredictable Pakistan and inconsistent Bangladesh.
Despite missing the pace trio of Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc, Australia seem destined to qualify for the semi-finals from Group B. Sure, they have not won a game in the Champions Trophy since 2009, but the Aussies over the last few years have produced some gritty comebacks in major tournaments. Afghanistan are certainly dark horses in the competition but South Africa look like a more balanced side. The Proteas could very well edge Afghanistan and England to join Australia in the semi-finals.
India, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa
India looks well-balanced heading into the Champions Trophy 2025, with their top five batters in good rhythm and no major concerns in the spin department. Their bases seem well covered, making them a strong contender for the semi-finals.
New Zealand, too, looks promising, especially with the impressive bowling performances in the Super Smash and the valuable match practice from the Pakistan Tri-Nation series.
Australia, despite the uncertainty around Pat Cummins’ availability, remains a formidable force. If the new captain makes the right calls, the Aussies’ ruthless mindset and ability to turn games around—something they’ve consistently shown over the past two years—make them a tough side to rule out. Writing off Australia is never easy, and they should be among the top four.
As for South Africa, they have a talented squad and the potential to go deep into the tournament. While they’ve had their struggles in big events, there’s hope that this group can push through and secure a semi-final spot. Based on form, depth, and history, India, New Zealand, Australia, and South Africa appear to be the strongest contenders for the semi-finals.
India, New Zealand, Australia and England
From the first group, India and New Zealand are expected to qualify for the semi-finals. Looking at this group it is relatively easier to predict the semi finalists than the second one.
India will play to their strengths in Dubai conditions and have done well in the recent ODI tournaments. New Zealand, on the other hand, is likely to be the second strongest team in the group, and after beating Pakistan in the tri-series on their home turf, they are expected to do the same here. They are also likely to beat Bangladesh, so India and New Zealand are favorites to qualify from the first group.
The second group is a tough one, as any of the four teams can advance to the semi-finals. In this group, though, Australia and England are likely to qualify.
Despite not having key players like Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Marsh, and Marcus Stoinis, Australia is still well equipped with good substitutes. Their batting lineup doesn’t really look much different, and when placed side by side with Afghanistan and South Africa, they still look like the stronger side, especially since South Africa will be missing some of their top fast bowlers.
On the other hand, England will have to depend upon their solid batting line-up. One of their advantages is that they will not have to play India’s top spinners in the group stages. The only real challenge to them in this regard will be Afghanistan’s spin attack, as the other teams are more reliant on fast bowlers. Thus, the way to the semis becomes all the more accessible for England because their batters can do really well in such conditions.
India, New Zealand, England, and South Africa
India appears to be the most well-rounded side for these conditions, boasting a formidable batting lineup, quality spinners, and solid batting depth. New Zealand, with a much stronger batting unit compared to Pakistan and Bangladesh, also looks well-equipped. The likes of Santner, Mitchell, Phillips, and O’Rourke will be crucial to their success.
England, despite their struggles against spin, have a destructive batting lineup and a strong pace attack. Their chances are further boosted by Australia’s injury concerns. South Africa, meanwhile, possess an imposing batting unit filled with in-form players, along with quality spin options and a decent pace attack. The Heinrich Klaasen factor could be a game-changer for them. Given their squad strengths and overall balance, these four teams stand out as the leading semi-finalists.
South Africa, Australia, India, New Zealand
South Africa might be struggling with injuries but given their recent track record of making big finals including the semifinal at the 2023 ODI World Cup, they are most likely to get to the last four in the Champions Trophy 2025 too. Australia too are struggling with four major exclusions in the form of Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Marcus Stoinis and Mitchell Marsh.
The two-time winners have that knack and pedigree to make it big in every ICC tournament, no matter what. They had won the 2003 World Cup even when they didn’t have Shane Warne. So, there’s no counting them out. India, meanwhile, have the familiarity of conditions and a strong squad to work in their favour. Even if they won’t have Jasprit Bumrah, they are still a formidable team likely to make the semis.
New Zealand always have been the dark horses in every tournament who make it to the big clashes. They have a unit that can fire in unison whenever a tricky situation arises and Mitchell Santner has so far proved that he can follow the great examples set by predecessors Kane Williamson and Brendon McCullum.
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India, South Africa, New Zealand, Australia
India and South Africa are well-rounded sides with quality players for both pace and spin, along with pacers suited for all conditions, making them obvious favorites.
Australia’s batting remains powerful, and while flat pitches might make things tricky, Adam Zampa’s ability to pick up wickets in the middle overs could be crucial. Additionally, Mitchell Starc and Spencer Johnson might find some reverse swing at the death, adding to their bowling threat. New Zealand, with their balanced squad and depth across departments, should also be in the mix. Given their strengths and adaptability, these four teams are well-positioned to make the semi-finals.
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