Shivam Dube's spin-hitting regression is a developing pattern.
At this point, finding fault in anything India do can be nitpicking. To get an idea of their ruthlessness, read this: they kept Suryakumar Yadav at No.11, tried as many as eight bowlers, and still won by 21 runs against Oman. Still, they might have a soft point, if not a weakness, in Shivam Dube.
Since last year, India have consistently preferred Dube in the shortest format. That meant Rinku Singh missed out on a spot in the T20 World Cup 2024 and now a place in the playing XI. The previous management was fascinated by his spin-hitting abilities, while the current one by his bowling skills, which have often been unused.
That first point remains crucial, though. Even if he offers bowling value, Dube’s primary role remains taking on spinners, and his value was always supposed to be higher in the UAE. At Chennai Super Kings (CSK), he established himself as a six-hitting machine against slow bowlers, and the impact was so much that teams stopped employing spinners until he was on the crease at one stage.
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Reputation often extends beyond the actual outcome, and Dube is currently living on that reputation. While he was a nonchalant spin whacker at one point, that time has gone now. It’s not that he has become a complete liability, but then he is not what he is in the XI for either.
In 2023, Dube had a strike rate of 162.58 and a balls-per-boundary ratio of 5.16 against spinners. He hit 30 boundaries, and 23 of them were maximums at 6.73 balls apiece. All he did was stand and deliver, and his long reach helped him get closer to the pitch of the ball.
However, the highs of 2023 couldn’t continue for too long, as his brute power and six-hitting expertise took a massive hit. Since 2024, he has a strike rate of 134.37 and a balls-per-boundary ratio of 6.85 against spinners. He still hits more sixes (31) than fours (11), but the rate at which they come has reduced.
This is a developing pattern, which has exacerbated this year. For instance, Dube struck at 143.44 and found the fence every 6.30 balls in 2024. But this year, both have come down to 125.17 and 7.52, respectively.
As his spin-hitting ability has declined, Dube has worked on his pace game and improved massively, including short-ball stuff. His strike rate and balls-per-boundary ratio in 2023 stood at 131.12 and 7.53, respectively. Since 2024, they have surged to 150.09 and 4.88, respectively.
That means while his spin game has regressed, the batter has managed to cover it with his improved returns against fast bowlers. For instance, he played a timely cameo in the T20 World Cup 2024 final, where his pace hitting worked in his favour. Even in the England series, he handled the likes of Jofra Archer and Brydon Carse adeptly.
In Shivam Dube’s case, he was always a tremendous hitter of fuller and shorter length deliveries against spinners. For instance, he had a strike rate of 265.1 and 175 against full and back-of-length balls in 2023. Even though his overall numbers have regressed since 2024, his strike rate on these two lengths has still been 218.3 and 177.3, respectively.
The issue has been good-length balls, where he always struggled. Whether it was his strike rate of 105.4 in 2023 or 82.6 since 2024, his troubles have been persistent, or even exacerbated lately. It’s that teams have identified the weak point and exploited it more.
In 2023, he faced around 47.05% of good length deliveries vs spin. That has surged to 52.47% since 2024. Even the lines have been more on the stumps now (41.30%) compared to before (30.35%).
Take Chennai Super Kings’ IPL 2025 fixture against Lucknow Super Giants (LSG), for instance. Digvesh Rathi consistently bowled googlies on the stump line, keeping it slightly shorter than full, so as not to allow him to get under the ball. That meant Dube was cramped for room and trapped in his crease, with a lack of feet movement ensuring he couldn’t even rotate the strike.
Now Dube has never been a batter who manoeuvres the field and keeps rotating the strike to avoid getting stuck. For him, it’s either six or nothing. So, when his issues finally became noticeable, he had no other option but to play for survival, resulting in a low strike rate and balls-per-boundary ratio.
Now that it’s clear that Shivam Dube doesn’t fill his primary role in the XI, India should ideally opt for Rinku Singh. As mentioned earlier, Hardik Pandya needs a batting cover, and Rinku can provide it. He is among the finest pace hitters in the team.
No matter how much Dube has improved, his pace game is still nowhere close to Rinku’s. At this stage, he might be just an above-average batter with no real expertise against pace or spin. He is not mediocre, but his limitations mean he doesn’t fall into a specialist category either.
He can easily be confined to the kind of surfaces the Asia Cup has. On standard T20 decks, which he will get almost everywhere, his value will be high, but not in the UAE. Then, his bowling won’t be required, and it was a desperate attempt to try everything when India finally gave three overs to Dube, and he turned out to be expensive.
In the strongest XI, India will often not need Dube’s bowling, at least in the UAE. Then, on flat surfaces, his bowling value automatically reduces. He is a utility cricketer, but the team can afford a specialist in his place.
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