With just a few matches remaining in the IPL 2025 league stage, the battle for a top-two finish is heating up. Gujarat Titans (GT), Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB), Punjab Kings (PBKS), and Mumbai Indians (MI) have all secured playoff spots, but the fight to finish in the top two remains crucial for an automatic berth in Qualifier 1. Let’s break down the IPL 2025 Top 2 Chances for each of these teams.
In this article, we break down the IPL 2025 top 2 chances, analyzing what each of the four teams, from the current points table position, needs to do to finish in the top two and how upcoming matches will shape the final standings.
| Teams | Mat | Won | Lost | Tied | NR | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gujarat Titans (Q) | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | +0.602 |
| Punjab Kings (Q) | 13 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 17 | +0.327 |
| Royal Challengers Bengaluru (Q) | 13 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 17 | +0.255 |
| Mumbai Indians (Q) | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | +1.292 |
| Delhi Capitals (E) | 14 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | +0.011 |
| Lucknow Super Giants (E) | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -0.337 |
| Kolkata Knight Riders (E) | 13 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | +0.193 |
| Sunrisers Hyderabad (E) | 13 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -0.740 |
| Rajasthan Royals (E) | 14 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -0.549 |
| Chennai Super Kings (E) | 14 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -1.030 |
All four teams are mathematically qualified. The IPL 2025 top two will be decided over the next five league matches.
With PBKS losing to Delhi Capitals (DC) on May 24, their top two chances have taken a significant hit. Previously, PBKS had a chance to finish in the top two, but now, even with two wins, their chances are slimmer. The loss leaves them with 17 points, and with their NRR still below that of both RCB and GT, their path to a top-two finish is much more complicated. They now need other teams to slip up and will rely heavily on improving their NRR, which could be difficult, especially with their last match against MI being a crucial 4-point game.
For RCB, the PBKS loss to DC offers a small boost in their bid for the top two. RCB still have 17 points and one match left, against LSG. With a win, they can reach 19 points, but they will still need PBKS to lose to MI. RCB’s top two chances remain at 45.7%, and although PBKS is now less of a threat, they must still rely on results going their way.
MI, meanwhile, remains on the outskirts of the top-two race, with a 33.6% chance. MI needs to win against PBKS and hope for RCB to lose against LSG. The PBKS vs MI match tomorrow will essentially seal one of the Qualifier 1 spots.
With CSK defeating GT, GT’s top two chances now hinge entirely on the LSG vs RCB game. If RCB wins, they will leapfrog GT into the top two, and GT will be relegated to Qualifier 2. If RCB loses, GT will take the other spot in the top two. Thus, GT’s chances now depend entirely on the outcome of the LSG vs RCB match.
| Team | Top 2 Chances | Remaining Fixtures | What They Need |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gujarat Titans | 41.3% | vs CSK (May 25) | Win to secure Top 2 |
| Royal Challengers Bengaluru | 59.2% | vs LSG (May 27) | Win + favorable results from others |
| Mumbai Indians | 55.0% | vs PBKS (May 26) | Win + hope for RCB and GT losses |
| Punjab Kings | 44.5% | vs MI (May 26) | Win + RCB lose to LSG + GT lose |
GT top 2 chances have suffered a massive setback after back-to-back losses, first to Lucknow Super Giants (LSG)and now to Chennai Super Kings (CSK). These defeats have significantly dampened Gujarat Titans’ prospects of finishing in the top two and securing a direct path to Qualifier 1. As a result, GT now faces an uphill battle to regain their place in the top two, with only a slim 41.3% chance remaining.
What GT Needs:
RCB top 2 chances were significantly dented after their loss to SRH, but they still have an opportunity to secure a top-two finish. With 17 points and one match left against LSG, they are in a relatively good position. RCB has the advantage of playing the last league match, so they will know exactly what they need to do to secure a top-two finishbased on other results.
What RCB Needs:
PBKS top 2 chances remain alive but are now more complicated after their loss to Delhi Capitals (DC) on May 24. With 17 points and a lower NRR, PBKS‘s path to a top-two finish requires winning their remaining match against MI. However, they also need favorable results from other teams to make it easier for them to finish in the top two.
What PBKS Needs:
Ideal Scenario for PBKS:
Despite their slim chances, MI top 2 chances are still mathematically alive. MI needs to win their final match against PBKS and hope for favorable results from other teams. Even if MI wins their last match, they will still need RCB and GT to lose their respective games and NRR to play a crucial role in their climb.
What MI Needs:
Ideal Scenario for MI:
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The IPL 2025 Top 2 race is finely poised with Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) now in a strong position after Gujarat Titans (GT)‘s back-to-back losses, which have pushed them down. Mumbai Indians (MI) and Punjab Kings (PBKS) are also fighting for a top two finish, with their match tomorrow deciding one of the Qualifier 1 spots.
With just a few matches left, the MI vs PBKS game on May 26 will determine the first Qualifier 1 spot. The winner of that match will secure a place in Qualifier 1. Meanwhile, the LSG vs RCB match on May 27 will be crucial for determining the other top two spot. If RCB wins, they will finish in the top two and reach Qualifier 1. However, if RCBloses, GT will take the second top-two spot, securing a place in Qualifier 1.
The top two finishers will have a significant advantage, securing a direct route to Qualifier 1 and a second chance at making the IPL 2025 final.
Yes, RCB can still finish in the top 2, but they must win against LSG.
GT can’t do much except hope that RCB will lose to LSG.
PBKS have a simple equation – they need to beat MI to make Qualifier 1 spot.
MI top 2 chances were significantly boosted by two losses for GT. They just need to beat PBKS on May 26 now to secure a top two spot.
If RCB beat LSG n the final league game, they will finish in the top 2, with winner of PBKS vs MI securing the other spot.
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