A draw in Brisbane would severely damage India’s chances of making it into the WTC final.
The race for the World Test Championship final is heading towards an exciting finish, with South Africa cementing their place at the top of the table following their series win over Sri Lanka.
India and Australia are also the main contenders for the final, but rain in the coming days and a draw in the Brisbane Test could create new scenarios in the race for the WTC final.
The weather forecast for Brisbane over the next few days does not look promising as rain is expected for each of the next four days, with heavy thunderstorms predicted for days four and five. The series is currently tied 1-1 after Australia’s comeback win in Adelaide, with two more Tests scheduled in Melbourne and Sydney.
India are currently third on the points table with a PCT of 57.29, while Australia are second with a PCT of 60.71. South Africa are at the top with a PCT of 63.33. A draw in Brisbane would severely damage India’s chances of making it into the WTC final.
To achieve a 3-1 series victory, India must win both of the remaining Tests after the Brisbane draw. If they do so, their PCT will rise to 60.53, securing a spot in the top two of the WTC standings. Even if Australia whitewashes Sri Lanka in their two-Test series in January, India’s PCT will still be sufficient to qualify for the WTC final.
Outcome: A 3-1 series win guarantees India a place in the WTC final, regardless of other results.
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If India and Australia each win one of the remaining two Tests, India’s PCT will drop to 55.26. In this case, Australia would only need to win one of their two Tests against Sri Lanka to surpass India in the standings and secure a spot in the final. India’s qualification hopes would then depend on South Africa losing points in their home series against Pakistan. However, South Africa losing the series 0-2 is highly unlikely. Even if South Africa splits the series 1-1, they would still qualify for the final.
Outcome: A 2-2 draw leaves India heavily reliant on Australia losing both Tests against Sri Lanka and South Africa faltering against Pakistan, making qualification highly unlikely.
India will not play any more matches after the Australia series in the ongoing World Test Championship cycle. They will, thus, end their campaign with 19 Tests. Australia, on the other hand, will face Sri Lanka in January for two Tests.
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