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What Happens To Pakistan Qualification Chances If They Boycott UAE Clash? Asia Cup 2025 Group A Scenarios Explained

Aditya Ighe

Pakistan are scheduled to lock horns with UAE on Wednesday, September 17.

The ongoing Asia Cup 2025 has taken an unexpected turn with political and disciplinary drama overshadowing on-field performances. The Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) has threatened to boycott their next Asia Cup clash against UAE unless the ICC removes match referee Andy Pycroft from the remainder of the tournament. This follows India’s post-match handshake snub after their emphatic seven-wicket win in Dubai, which has now put the focus on both Asia Cup qualification scenarios and Pakistan qualification chances from Group A.

Reacting to the India’s reaction, Pakistan captain Salman Agha did not show up for the post-match presentation. Head Coach Mike Hesson also expressed his frustration during the press conference, calling their captain’s absence a “flow-on” effect on India’s decision.

On the other hand, Indian captain Suryakumar Yadav dedicated the victory to Indian Armed Forces, who took part in ‘Operation Sindoor’. When asked about not shaking hands, Surya stated that few things are beyond the “Sportsmanship spirit.” Notably, the Indian skipper didn’t exchange handshakes with Agha after the toss, a normal practice in cricket. Later, a few reports claimed that the match referee Pycroft had asked both captains not to shake hands. 

The Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) immediately interfered into the matter after the match, lodging a protest against India and writing to ICC to remove Pycroft from the remainder of the marquee event. The Zimbabwean match official was the designated match referee for Pakistan’s next clash against UAE. If the ICC doesn’t remove him, it remains to be seen whether Pakistan walk the talk and pull their name out of Asia Cup 2025. 

This has led us to have a look at the Group A qualification scenarios and Pakistan qualification chances for the next stage. 

Group A Points Table Situation

  • India sit comfortably at the top after defeating Pakistan, giving them the early edge in Group A.
  • Pakistan are now under pressure, with their next match against UAE holding critical importance for their campaign.
  • UAE, considered minnows, still have a mathematical chance but will require an upset against one of the big two to realistically stay in contention.

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What happens to Pakistan if the boycott happens?

Pakistan will be knocked out of the Asia Cup 2025 if the Men in Green choose not to participate in their match against UAE. They would remain stranded on just two points, having defeated Oman in their campaign opener. However, that would not be enough, as both India and UAE would advance to the Super 4 stage with more points than Pakistan. India already have two wins with a game in hand, while UAE have two points from their win over Oman. A walkover from Pakistan would give UAE two additional points, taking their tally to four and sealing qualification alongside India.

If Pakistan do play against UAE, the fixture effectively becomes a virtual knockout for a place in the Super 4s. Their qualification will depend entirely on the outcome of that game. At the moment, the ball is in Pakistan’s court, as well as that of ACC and PCB Chairman Mohsin Naqvi, with the ICC expected to make the final call on Andy Pycroft’s involvement. According to the latest reports, however, the ICC is likely to reject Pakistan’s plea.

Pakistan Qualification Chances Explained

Pakistan’s qualification pathway is simple on paper but clouded by their current off-field stance:

  • If Pakistan beat UAE: They will strongly boost their chances of progressing to the Super Four stage, with India almost certain to join them from the group.
  • If Pakistan boycott the game: They risk handing UAE two crucial points by forfeit, which could leave Pakistan dependent on net run rate or other results.
  • If Pakistan lose to UAE: Their qualification chances become slim, as UAE could leapfrog them into contention for the second Super Four spot.
Scenario Pakistan Points UAE Points Qualified Teams
Pakistan boycott vs UAE (walkover) 2 4 India, UAE
Pakistan lose vs UAE 2 4 India, UAE
Pakistan beat UAE 4 2 India, Pakistan

Given the strength of their squad, Pakistan remain favorites to advance, but the boycott threat has introduced an unprecedented twist to the Asia Cup qualification scenarios.

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