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What Happens To Pakistan Qualification Chances If They Boycott UAE Clash? Asia Cup 2025 Group A Scenarios Explained

Aditya Ighe

Pakistan are scheduled to lock horns with UAE on September 17.

After the handshake saga against India in Dubai, the ongoing Asia Cup 2025 has taken an unexpected turn with political and disciplinary drama overshadowing on-field performances. The Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) has threatened to boycott their next clash against the UAE unless the ICC removes match referee Andy Pycroft from the remainder of the tournament. This comes after some reports claimed that the match referee, Pycroft, had asked both captains not to shake hands. It has now put focus on both the Asia Cup qualification scenarios for Pakistan from Group A.

In response to Suryakumar Yadav’s refusal to shake hands, Pakistan captain Salman Agha did not show up for the post-match presentation. Head Coach Mike Hesson also expressed his frustration during the press conference, calling the captain’s absence a “flow-on” effect.

On the other hand, the Indian captain dedicated the victory to the Armed Forces, who took part in Operation Sindoor. When asked about not shaking hands, Surya stated that a few things are beyond the “sportsmanship spirit.”

The Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) immediately interfered in the matter after the match, lodging a protest against India and writing to the ICC to remove Pycroft from the remainder of the marquee event. The Zimbabwean match official was the designated match referee for Pakistan’s next clash against the UAE. If the ICC doesn’t remove him, it remains to be seen whether they will walk the talk or not.

This has led us to look at the Group A qualification scenarios and Pakistan’s qualification chances for the Super Fours.

Group A Asia Cup 2025 Points Table Situation

  • India sit comfortably at the top after defeating Pakistan and the UAE, giving them the early edge in Group A.
  • Pakistan are now under pressure, with their next match against the UAE holding critical importance for their campaign.
  • UAE, considered minnows, have a mathematical chance if they beat Pakistan.

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Pakistan Qualification Chances in Asia Cup 2025 if they boycott vs UAE?

The Salman Agha-led will be knocked out of the Asia Cup 2025 if they choose not to participate in their match against the UAE. The Men in Green would remain stranded on two points, having defeated Oman in their campaign opener. However, that would not be enough, as both India and the UAE would advance to the Super Fours with more points. India already have two wins with a game in hand, while the UAE have two points from their win over Oman. A walkover from Pakistan would give the UAE two additional points, taking their tally to four and sealing qualification alongside India.

If Pakistan play against the UAE, the fixture effectively becomes a virtual knockout for a place in the Super Fours. Their qualification will depend entirely on the outcome of that game. At the moment, the ball is in Pakistan’s court, as well as that of ACC and PCB Chairman Mohsin Naqvi. The ICC is soon expected to make the final call on Andy Pycroft’s involvement. According to the latest reports, however, the ICC is likely to reject Pakistan’s plea.

Pakistan’s qualification pathway is simple on paper, but clouded by their current off-field stance:

  • If Pakistan beat the UAE: They will strongly boost their chances of progressing to the Super Fours, with India almost certain to join them from the group.
  • If Pakistan boycott the game: They risk handing two crucial points to the UAE, which could leave the Men in Green dependent on NRR or other results.
  • If Pakistan lose to the UAE: Their qualification chances become slim. The hosts could leapfrog them into contention for the second spot in Super Fours.
Scenario Pakistan Points UAE Points Qualified Teams
Pakistan boycott vs UAE (walkover) 2 4 India, UAE
Pakistan lose vs UAE 2 4 India, UAE
Pakistan beat UAE 4 2 India, Pakistan

Given the strength of their squad, Pakistan remain favourites to advance. But the boycott threat has introduced an unprecedented twist to the Asia Cup 2025 qualification scenarios.

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