Reddit user does T20 World Cup simulation and arrives at title winner

A Reddit user analysed in detail the teams’ strengths and chances at the upcoming T20 World Cup 2022, while arriving at the title winner.
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The model had given the West Indies 1% chance of winning last year’s edition, highlighting the accuracy.

With the T20 World Cup 2022 set to kickstart on Sunday, October 16, predictions and theories have started to arrive at a potential winner. Hosts and defending champions Australia have been viewed as one of tournament favourites, so too are India and England, with the latter having recently defeated Australia 2-0 in a bilateral series.

Pakistan and South Africa too, boast formidable line-ups, and while New Zealand haven’t exactly excelled in recent times, their record in ICC tournaments over the last decade puts them pretty much in contention.

A Reddit user, namely Neil Dewart, did a detailed analysis and simulation for the T20 World Cup 2022 to conclude with a likely winner. The methodology used was Monte Carlo simulation, “which involves simulating the tournament many times (10,000 in this case) and aggregating the results”. The study also highlights and compares the bookmakers’ predictions and favourites from this year as well as the last.

The study highlights how the model had given West Indies, the two-time winners with a 1% chance of winning as opposed to bookmakers’ putting them as third favourites, and the team crashed out of the competition with four defeats from five Super 12s games.

The methodology involved deriving ratings for each team “in order to get a quantitative measure of the competitors' respective strengths” using the Bradley-Terry model.

A detailed tournament simulator with more calculations was run 10,000 times to arrive at a winner.

The model concluded England as the favourites to win the competition, giving them a 21% chance, followed by Australia and India with 18% each. South Africa and Pakistan were next with 16% and 15% respectively, while New Zealand, the 2021 runners-up, were given just a 5% chance. That the Blackcaps would have to defeat one or each of the top three favourites England, Australia and India to go the distance - the former two more than once - there is a considerable difference between them and the top five named in the study.

The overall results suggested Australia and England as definite semi-finalists from Group 1 of the Super 12s stage, while it projected a tough three-way tussle between India, Pakistan and South Africa, especially from the latter two while putting India ahead in Group 2.